Ecuador’s current president, Daniel Noboa, and the left-wing opposition candidate, Luisa González, will face off in a head-to-head runoff election on April 13.
With more than 99.96% of the votes counted, the ruling party secured 44.31%, while the candidate aligned with banned and self-exiled former president Rafael Correa obtained 43.97%, a difference of less than half a percentage point after two months of campaigning.
It is important to note that, of the other 14 presidential candidates, only two received more than one percent of the vote: Leonidas Iza came in third with 5.26%, and Andrea González placed fourth with 2.71%.
Both they and their voters will be key in the runoff election. Iza is left-wing and had reached a non-aggression pact and some political agreements with Luisa González during the campaign, suggesting a potential future endorsement. Andrea González, on the other hand, is right-wing and much closer to Noboa. Another factor to consider is that blank and null votes accounted for 9% of the vote.
Luisa González raised doubts about the electoral process: “We do not trust the National Electoral Council. We have a CNE president—Diana Atamaint—who has not demonstrated leadership nor ensured clear rules. She is essentially Daniel Noboa’s campaign chief. That’s why we will keep pushing for those delayed tally sheets; there are 2,614 records with inconsistencies.”
Who’s Who: U.S. Interference
As reflected in the results of the February 9 election, Ecuadorian society is polarized, divided into two—much like what happens in many Latin American countries.
Since the rise of “Correísmo,” with Rafael Correa serving as president from January 2007 to May 2017, the left-wing bloc became the dominant political force in Ecuador. As an unintended consequence, it also “structured” the right-wing, anti-Correa space. In fact, in recent elections, a candidate from Correa’s camp has won the first round but always lost the runoff. In the previous election, Luisa González herself experienced this against Andrés Arauz.
Now, what does the ruling right-wing stand for? The National Democratic Action Movement (ADN) of Daniel Noboa represents the continuity of his current neo-liberal economic policies and U.S. interference in national politics.
Ecuador has the highest homicide rate in the region: 47 per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the Ecuadorian Observatory of Organized Crime. One of the victims in 2023 was presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, who was shot by hired assassins. Some 45% of the murders were committed with weapons manufactured in the United States.
With the backing of public demand to curb insecurity linked to organized crime in general, and drug trafficking in particular, Noboa is pushing forward a process of the “militarization of society.” As a result, he enjoys strong support from the military establishment.
Additionally, Noboa authorized the deployment of the U.S. Southern Command in the strategic Galápagos Islands. Ecuador has prior experience allowing U.S. military bases on its territory. In 1998, Jamil Mahuad agreed to the establishment of a base in the coastal city of Manta, where it remained until Rafael Correa refused to renew the agreement and expelled the U.S. from Ecuador. Now, under Noboa, the U.S. is once again asserting its presence on foreign soil. Naturally, the “great nation of the North” supports him.
Two documents authorize the entry of U.S. warships and aircraft into the Galápagos: the “Comprehensive Security Project for the Insular Region” (SOFA). “The Government will allow the adaptation or construction of additional facilities to those already installed in local ports or airports. Members of the Armed Forces, civilian employees, and U.S. Department of Defense contractors,…along with U.S. personnel, ships, and aircraft, will be exempt from fees, enjoying privileges, exemptions, and immunities equivalent to those granted to diplomatic personnel.”
Additionally, the United States will maintain disciplinary control and criminal jurisdiction over its personnel within Ecuadorian territory. The agreement authorizes a range of operations that U.S. military forces can carry out—primarily by sea and air—against drug trafficking, arms smuggling, illegal migration, illegal fishing, and other organized crime activities.
Ecuadorian economic consultant Roberto Ruiz Blum explained to CovertAction Magazine the implications of U.S. interference in the Galápagos: “It’s worse than a military base because a base occupies one or two square kilometers, whereas here they can use the entire national radio spectrum—meaning they can intercept all national communications. Noboa has essentially handed over the entire national territory. That’s why the Galápagos government allows U.S. warships to enter without any constitutional amendments. The U.S. Armed Forces can operate in Ecuador with complete immunity.”
U.S. interference will likely continue if Noboa is re-elected. However, if Luisa González becomes president—being part of the same Revolución Ciudadana (RC5) movement as Rafael Correa—a radical shift in relations with Donald Trump’s administration would be expected.
“Restricted” or Full Democracy
President Daniel Noboa declared a State of Emergency, placing Ecuador under a “restricted democracy.” One of the events that shocked the nation was the December 2024 torture and subsequent murder of four children, aged 11 to 15, in Guayaquil. They had gone out to play soccer. Out of a group of ten boys, six managed to escape the Armed Forces; Ismael and Josué Arroyo, Saúl, and Steven did not—they were victims of extrajudicial execution.
Luis Arroyo, the father of the two brothers, recounted: “I saw my two sons; they only left their feet. Since Ismael had bunions from playing soccer, I was able to recognize him by that—because his head was gone too. The other one, they only left a little hand. My wife didn’t want to see them.” The families’ lawyer and member of the Permanent Committee for Human Rights, Nando Bastias, stated: “This is clearly a case of enforced disappearance of the four children. The last known information from that night indicates that the boys were in the hands of the Armed Forces.”
According to the latest estimates from Ecuador’s Ministry of the Interior, at least 770 homicides of children and adolescents were recorded in the country in 2023, representing a 640% increase compared to 104 cases in 2019. “In recent months, the deaths of children and adolescents have risen drastically due to a surge in crime across various parts of Ecuador. There are also reports of increased forced recruitment of teenagers by armed groups, and medical facilities and schools are under siege,” described Garry Conille, UNICEF Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean.
The Attorney General’s Office confirmed that the boys had no ties to organized crime, contrary to the government’s attempts to cover up the murders. The responsibility lies with Noboa’s Armed Forces. According to The Economist, Ecuador “is the world’s newest narco-state,” deeply linked to money laundering.
To combat organized crime, the president raised the VAT—the Value Added Tax, a regressive levy that disproportionately impacts those with the least—from 12% to 15%. Similarly, under Noboa’s administration, 250,000 jobs have been lost, the economy has stagnated, and consumption has contracted by 2% of GDP, leading to recession. The population has also endured massive blackouts, with power outages lasting nearly 14 consecutive hours.
Neo-liberal economic policies began to be implemented during Lenín Moreno’s administration in 2017. He came to power with Correa’s support but later betrayed him. Under Moreno, a deal was signed with the IMF, marking the beginning of judicial and media persecution against Rafael Correa.
“Lawfare in Ecuador has had a devastating effect because it systematically targets any political sector that challenges right-wing neo-liberal policies. The most serious consequence is that this process has contributed to the deinstitutionalization of the State. What remains is merely a ‘façade’ of state and democracy, a void that has been filled by criminal gangs,” explains Silvina Romano, director of the Lawfare Observatory.
“As the State abandoned its territory, these gangs have expanded. This is closely linked to U.S. foreign policy in the region, where Ecuador serves as a key pillar for U.S. Armed Forces operations in northern South America. With the peace process in Colombia, cartels have moved into Ecuador, which now hosts U.S. bases and an increased presence of American officials in its institutions. Leaked chat messages have revealed that Attorney General Diana Salazar works for the U.S.; she has leaked information to them. From Washington, they do not want the return of a progressive government in Ecuador,” concludes Silvina Romano.
Ecuador and Its Dollarized Economy
Ecuador has a dollarized economy, which is extremely difficult to exit. In fact, even Rafael Correa was unable to do so. The key, then, is to implement policies that benefit the broader population, as Luisa González proposes, rather than favoring the main winners of this system: “the financial sector, banks, oil exports, and extractivist economies,” explains economist Roberto Ruiz Blum. Another crucial factor is remittances sent by Ecuadorians abroad, which play a significant role in the economy. “In 2024 alone, they totaled six billion dollars,” he adds.
Once again, the right and the left will compete for power. In just two months, Ecuador will decide whether to remain aligned with the U.S., like Argentina—Presidents Noboa and Javier Milei were invited to Trump’s inauguration—or if the country will join the growing bloc of progressive governments in the region.
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About the Author
Hernán Viudes is an independent journalist and a graduate from The Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Buenos Aires. He lived in Argentina and enjoys music, culture and football.
Hernán can be reached at hernanviudes@gmail.com.
